Chapter 7
20-25 min

How to Predict Price Movement

Technical + Fundamental Analysis. Learn to see context and find precise entries.

7.1 Two Approaches to Market Analysis

Technical Analysis
Study price action, patterns, and indicators

Toggle elements to see how technical traders view the market through patterns and price levels.

Fundamental Analysis
Economic events and news that move markets

Fed Interest Rate Decision

High volatility for USD pairs; higher rates strengthen USD

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Major employment report; strong jobs = stronger USD

GDP Growth Report

Economic health indicator; higher GDP = stronger currency

Geopolitical Events

War, elections, sanctions affect safe-haven currencies

Pro Tip: Switch between elements to see the connection. Often the best decision combines both approaches.

7.2 Technical Analysis

7.2.1 Price Action

Candlestick Patterns

Doji

Uncertainty; look for confirmation from level/momentum

Hammer / Inverted Hammer

Absorbed minimum/maximum; reversal signal at key levels

Engulfing (Bull/Bear)

Strong absorption; confirmation at key zones

Support & Resistance Levels

Key price levels where buying/selling pressure is concentrated.

How to identify: Look for local highs/lows with multiple touches
How to use: Buy at support, sell at resistance; watch for breakouts
Trend Lines

Diagonal lines connecting swing highs (resistance) or lows (support).

How to draw: Connect at least 2-3 swing points in the trend direction
How to use: Breakout or retest signals potential trend change

7.2.2 Technical Indicators

Indicators are mathematical calculations based on price and volume. They complement, not replace, price action analysis.

SMA/EMA
SMA = Sum of prices / Period
MACD
MACD = EMA(12) - EMA(26), Signal = EMA(9)
ADX
ADX = SMA of DX over period

Important: Indicators complement, but do not replace, price action. Always consider the broader market context and use multiple confirmations before entering a trade.

7.2.3 Chart Patterns

Recognizable formations that often precede predictable price movements.

Ascending Triangle
Flat resistance + rising support = bullish breakout expected
Target: Height of triangle added to breakout point
Descending Triangle
Flat support + falling resistance = bearish breakdown expected
Target: Height of triangle subtracted from breakdown point
Head & Shoulders
Three peaks with middle highest = reversal pattern
Target: Neckline to head distance from neckline break
Double Top
Two peaks at similar level = bearish reversal
Target: Distance from peaks to support from breakdown
Double Bottom
Two troughs at similar level = bullish reversal
Target: Distance from bottoms to resistance from breakout

7.3 Fundamental Analysis

7.3.1 Economic Indicators

Key economic data releases that impact currency strength. Understanding what they measure and how markets react is crucial for fundamental analysis.

7.3.2 Economic Calendar

Track upcoming economic events and data releases. High-impact events can cause significant market volatility.

Upcoming Economic Events
Filter by impact level and currency to focus on relevant events for your trading pairs

Important: Real market reaction can differ from textbook scenarios. Markets trade "surprise" (actual vs expected), not just the actual number. Always use stop-loss when trading around major data releases.

7.3.3 Central Bank Policies

Understanding central bank stances is crucial for fundamental analysis. Hawkish policy supports currency, dovish policy weakens it.

Major Central Banks Overview
Current policy stance and key dates (educational data - not real-time)
Central BankCurrent RateStanceLast DecisionNext Meeting

Federal Reserve (Fed)

USD

5.25-5.50%NeutralHeld rates (Nov 2023)Dec 2023

European Central Bank (ECB)

EUR

4.50%DovishHeld rates (Oct 2023)Dec 2023

Bank of Japan (BOJ)

JPY

-0.10%DovishHeld ultra-loose policyDec 2023

Bank of England (BOE)

GBP

5.25%HawkishRaised 0.25% (Sep 2023)Dec 2023

Policy Stance Definitions:

Hawkish

Favors raising rates to combat inflation. Strengthens currency.

Neutral

Balanced approach, waiting for more data. Mixed impact.

Dovish

Favors lowering rates to stimulate growth. Weakens currency.

7.4 Combining Both Approaches

Best Practice Strategy

1. Fundamental → Direction (Bias)

Use economic data and central bank policies to determine which currency should strengthen or weaken. This gives you the overall bias.

Example: "USD should strengthen because Fed is hawkish and NFP beat expectations"

2. Technical → Timing (Entry/Exit)

Use charts, patterns, and indicators to find the precise entry point, stop loss, and take profit levels.

Example: "Wait for EURUSD to break below support at 1.0850 with bearish candle confirmation"

Interactive Case Study: Combining FA + TA
Step through a real-world scenario to see how fundamental and technical analysis work together

1Fundamental Event

Scenario:

US CPI Data: Inflation comes in at 5.2% YoY vs expected 4.8%. Higher than expected inflation increases probability of Fed rate hike.

Fundamental Bias:

USD should strengthen → Bearish bias on EURUSD

2Wait for Technical Setup

Don't rush into trade immediately. Wait for price to reach a key technical level where your bias can be confirmed.

EURUSD - 4H Chart
Resistance 1.0950

Price approaches resistance at 1.0950 and forms bearish engulfing pattern

Technical Setup:

Resistance level + Bearish engulfing pattern confirms downside bias

3Plan Trade with Risk:Reward

Define entry, stop loss, and take profit based on technical levels and desired risk:reward ratio.

Option A: Conservative (1:1.5)

Entry: 1.0945

SL: 1.0975 (30 pips)

TP: 1.0900 (45 pips)

R:R = 1:1.5

Option B: Aggressive (1:2)

Entry: 1.0945

SL: 1.0975 (30 pips)

TP: 1.0885 (60 pips)

R:R = 1:2

SL: 1.0975Entry: 1.0945TP: 1.0900RiskReward

Why This Plan Works

  • Fundamental bias: USD strength from higher inflation data
  • Technical confirmation: Resistance level + bearish pattern
  • Risk management: Clear SL above resistance, positive R:R
  • Objective plan: Removes emotion from decision-making

Remember: Even with both FA and TA aligned, trades can fail. Always use stop loss. Alternative scenarios include: price breaking above resistance (invalidates setup), or unexpected news reversing the fundamental bias. No analysis method guarantees success.

Disclaimers & Risk Warnings

Risk Warning

Trading foreign exchange and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market reactions to news and data depend on expectations and context. Chart patterns and technical indicators do not guarantee outcomes. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before making any trading decisions.

Not Financial Advice

This educational material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of professional advice. All analysis methods, indicators, and examples presented are for educational purposes to help you understand market mechanics. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Educational Content Disclaimer

The technical and fundamental analysis methods presented in this chapter are teaching tools to help you understand how professional traders approach the markets. Key points to remember:

  • Market reactions depend on context, expectations, and the "surprise factor" (actual vs forecast)
  • Candlestick patterns and chart formations require confirmation from other analysis methods
  • Technical indicators are lagging by nature and should not be used in isolation
  • Fundamental analysis provides directional bias but not precise entry timing
  • Combining TA and FA improves probability but never guarantees success
  • Risk management (stop loss, position sizing) is mandatory for every trade

Hypothetical Performance Results

Any examples, case studies, or scenarios presented in this chapter are hypothetical and for educational illustration only. They do not represent actual trading results or account performance. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations as they do not reflect actual trading conditions, market liquidity, slippage, or the psychological pressures of real trading. No representation is being made that following these methods will result in profitable trading.

By continuing to use this educational platform, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agree to these disclaimers. You accept full responsibility for your trading decisions and outcomes.

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